From the Expert: Measuring Counterterrorism Success and Risk Management
June 11, 2026In our From the Expert blog series, we feature leading voices from Capitol Tech's network of thought leaders contributing their fresh insights, groundbreaking ideas, and real-world experience. From innovative research to practical applications, their unique perspectives on today’s most exciting scientific and technological discoveries bring us to the frontiers of discovery and inspire us to imagine the future.
Measuring Counterterrorism Success: A Security Risk Management Framework for Government Campaigns
Dr. Joshua Sinai, Professor of Practice in Intelligence and Global Security Studies at Capitol Technology University, has published an article in the Government Technology & Services Coalition's (GTSC) Homeland Security Today.
In his article, "Measuring Counterterrorism Success: A Security Risk Management Framework for Government Campaigns," Dr. Sinai examines one of the most persistent challenges facing governments worldwide: how to effectively measure success in counterterrorism efforts. Drawing on principles of security risk management (SRM), he proposes a framework that moves beyond simply counting prevented attacks and instead, evaluates how counterterrorism initiatives reduce threats, vulnerabilities, and potential consequences over time.
As part of his leadership in management, curriculum development, and instruction for Capitol Tech’s Intelligence and Global Security Studies field of study, Dr. Sinai regularly analyzes emerging issues shaping the homeland security landscape. His research and writing focus on translating complex security challenges into practical frameworks that can inform policymakers, practitioners, and students alike.
In April 2026, Dr. Sinai presented research from his article at the GTSC's Counterterrorism2026 (CT2026) conference, a mission‑focused, two‑day event hosted in Arlington, VA designed for leaders from government, law enforcement, academia, and the private sector to address the evolving global terrorism threat.
Dr. Sinai notes that measuring counterterrorism effectiveness is inherently difficult because success is often defined by events that never occur. Rather than relying solely on traditional metrics such as attack frequency or arrests, he advocates for a comprehensive risk-based approach that assesses how government campaigns contribute to threat reduction, resilience, preparedness, and long-term security outcomes.
"The SRM framework represents a more useful methodological model for measuring and scoring the overall effectiveness of governments’ CT campaigns than other frameworks which tend to examine them only partially and not based on scored metrics of effectiveness," said Dr. Sinai. "Unlike other approaches, the SRM framework assesses the magnitude of the threat of terrorism, the vulnerability of a country’s population and critical infrastructure to being attacked."
By applying a security risk management lens to counterterrorism strategy, Dr. Sinai’s article provides a valuable perspective on how governments can better evaluate the return on their security investments. He emphasizes that effective counterterrorism requires not only preventing attacks but also building resilient institutions, reducing vulnerabilities, and establishing measurable indicators that demonstrate progress in protecting the public from evolving threats.
Read Dr. Sinai’s publication in Homeland Security Today.
Dr. Joshua Sinai
Professor of Practice
Based in the Washington, DC area, Dr. Sinai has more than 35 years of experience in international security, national security, and homeland security studies with the U.S. government, academia, and the corporate sector. He has worked with the U.S. Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress as a senior intelligence analyst, and, for private sector firms as a contractor in support of government agencies such as the Department of Defense (DoD), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) Foreign Terrorist Tracking Task Force (FTTTF). Dr. Sinai is well-published in academic journals, trade magazines, edited volumes, and training curricula. His pocket handbook “Active Shooter: A Handbook on Prevention”, published by ASIS International in 2013 and as an expanded second edition in 2016, is a best-selling book on public safety that details active shooter incidents, preparation and prevention, and tactical responses.