Predicting Catastrophe: How Q-Day and Cryptography Could Threaten National Security

 

The impacts of quantum computing on national security are no longer theoretical. As quantum capabilities advance rapidly, the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) is taking steps to understand what the next twenty years of cryptographic evolution may look like. To better prepare federal agencies for a changing digital landscape, the ODNI commissioned the National Academies to examine potential future scenarios in cryptography and assess their implications for national defense. Their findings paint a future full of uncertainty, urgency, and critical decision points that will shape how the U.S. and the world protects its most sensitive information.

Preparing for Q-Day

Central to the ODNI’s concern is Q-Day, the moment when a sufficiently powerful quantum computer can break widely used public key encryption algorithms such as RSA and elliptic curve cryptography. These systems currently protect everything from online banking to military communications. New quantum algorithms would allow adversaries to solve the mathematical problems behind these systems exponentially faster, potentially rendering today's encryption applications useless. These systems currently protect everything from online banking to military communications. 

Q-Day is not expected to be a sudden apocalyptic event, but rather, a turning point that compromises decades of encrypted data. Malicious actors are already conducting “harvest now, decrypt later” operations that collect encrypted traffic today with the expectation that it will become readable once quantum capabilities mature. Sensitive information such as government records, medical data, intellectual property, and intelligence archives could all be vulnerable, even if the actual quantum breakthrough remains years away.

Some experts place Q-Day as early as 2029, raising pressure on government agencies and infrastructure operators to prepare before the clock runs out.

Quantum Risk in the Cybersecurity Landscape

Forbes describes the risk of quantum computing as “water filling [a] maze. It doesn't "try" paths one at a time; it spreads into every route at once. It reveals the exit immediately, not because it moved faster but because it didn't have to pick just one direction.” Quantum computing is fundamentally different from classical computing in this way. And while Q-Day is a significant concern, quantum computing is not the only emerging cyber threat impacting national security. Advancements in generative AI are lowering the barrier for sophisticated cyberattacks, enabling automated malware development, intelligent phishing campaigns, and rapid vulnerability discovery. Combined with the potential for quantum-enabled code-breaking, these technologies introduce risks that could disrupt critical infrastructure, financial markets, and healthcare systems.

Attackers are already targeting data with long-term value, and many legacy systems like embedded devices, industrial controls, and older communication networks cannot be easily updated with current encryption standards. This creates a growing risk surface between evolving threats and infrastructure readiness.

The ODNI’s Response to Quantum Vulnerability

The ODNI report examines what the future of cryptography might look like across the next two decades. Rather than predict a single outcome, the committee modeled multiple scenarios shaped by three major factors: scientific advances, societal and governmental dynamics, and the global systems and products that use encryption.

• Predictable Scientific Progress: In this scenario, developments in quantum computing advance steadily and transparently. Governments and industry have time to adopt quantum-resistant algorithms, allowing for a smoother transition. This would require strong global cooperation and well-established standards to keep critical infrastructure secure.

• Disruptive Breakthroughs: Another possibility is a sudden leap in quantum capabilities or unexpected cryptographic breakthroughs. Such a disruption would outpace defensive preparations and leave both government and private sector systems exposed. The report highlights this as one of the most dangerous paths because it condenses proactive timelines and increases the likelihood of widespread security failures.

• Fragmented Global Governance: If nations adopt diverging encryption regulations or data sovereignty policies, digital communication and trust erode quickly. This fragmentation would make it harder to implement global security standards and could create uneven protections across borders. This type of scenario increases opportunities for espionage, supply chain compromise, and strategic exploitation.

Across all scenarios, the ODNI report stresses that cryptography will remain central to both intelligence gathering and defense, though its reliability will depend on how quickly the U.S. adapts to emerging threats. As a technology that is currently only available to national agencies and mega-corporations, due to the price of cooling systems, precision computer engineering and the energy needed, it is up to these leaders to effectively and ethically handle this growing concern. 

Safeguarding the Nation Against Quantum Threats

Additional federal agencies are working to get ahead of this impending quantum threat. The National Institute of Standards and Technology recently released several quantum-resistant algorithms designed to resist both classical and quantum attacks. These algorithms are expected to be the foundation of future secure communications.

At the same time, national security agencies like the NSA and CISA continue to modernize cybersecurity frameworks, promote Zero Trust architectures, and release guidance to strengthen critical infrastructure. However, this transition will take years, and delays increase the risk that adversaries will exploit vulnerabilities created during this migration period.

The risks outlined in the ODNI report highlight a growing need for specialists who understand cryptography, quantum computing, system security, and cyber policy. As encryption standards evolve, agencies and organizations will require experts capable of assessing vulnerabilities, deploying quantum-safe systems, and anticipating how emerging technologies reshape national security. These roles are critical for both government agencies and every industry that relies on secure communication and data protection.

Quantum Computing at Capitol Tech

Preparing for Q-Day demands more than new algorithms—it requires well-trained professionals who can navigate a rapidly evolving threat landscape. Capitol Technology University’s Master of Research in Quantum Computing emphasizes advanced quantum theory, computing, and applied research so graduates can address the challenges raised by the quantum evolution, including post-quantum cryptography, secure communications, and defense-related applications. 

Explore what a degree from Capitol Tech can do for you! To learn more, contact our Admissions team or request more information.

 

Written by Jordan Ford
Edited by Erica Decker